Southeast Asia:Thailand

We have plenty of problems of our own. From Iraq to the faltering economy we have enough to fill our worried minds. But if you had not heard their is an insurrection going on in Thailand. It does not play a pivotal role in U.S. politics but it represents a continuous problem of government corruption and control that has been rampant in Southeast Asia since WWII. This is the first part of a series of essays to make you think on a broader scale. (If you want another drinking story we can go grab a beer on the weekend. Spring game tailgate anyone?)

With the Thai New Year's Riots in the capital gaining all the news, the insurgency in the Pattani provinces North of Malaysia continues to grow over the past month and a half. The insurgency there is nothing new to the country. It has been taking place over the past 5 years. Only recently over the past month and a half has the insurgency intensified. So far it has claimed approximately 3400 lives and injured another 5600 people.

The reasons stem back to the ousting of Prime Minister/'Populist CEO' Thaksin in 2006. Instability in the Thai government began with the corruption allegations surrounding the coup to oust P.M. Thaksin. A couple puppet P.M.'s followed him in office. The current P.M. Abhisit, who took office in December, is trying to turn around an unstable Thailand. With help from the economic downturn Abhisit has managed to send the tourist economy based country into a land of turmoil. Not to place the blame fully on him; he may not be the right man for the job. It seems like he walked into a vacuum he couldn't imagine filling. This is leaving a bigger hole for the possibly return of the previous P.M Thaksin or worse yet the military. Now, the government is trying to avoid a return of military rule. With the insurrection in the capital and out in Pattani intensifying it looks more dreary everyday.

These insurrections are only hurting the economy even more by preventing tourism to continue unabaded. The autocratic desiring Muslims who make up the small but significant insurgency in Pattani are a threat to stability for the Thai government. Since the rebels have been fighting openly for 5 years now they are not severely impacting the tourism economy. They do pose a threat of national stability and a military strategic providence located on the lower peninsula so close to Malaysia. Simply put the government cannot afford to give up a province to a small group of rebels. Even though the number of people who make up the insurgency is small the two sides need to open up a dialogue. The Muslims who make up 70% of the insurgents feel discriminated by the Buddhist-oriented Thai government. And making some small concessions to the formerly autocratic province (pre-1902) would go a long way. It would, also, allow the Thai government to focus on their rioting problems in Bangkok. (There it is.)

The opposite way of thinking about this Pattani problem is to imagine that moving 60000+ troops into the Pattani provinces helps the government keep a large amount of the military forces out of the capital. Allowing two things: first, cutting down on the chances of a military coup in the capital. Secondly, the armed forces in the have done a very good job of keeping casualties down in Bangkok. Having an increased military presence in the capital might encourage more civil unrest as liberties are locked down.

Thailand is a country to watch right now. It's civil unrest is indicative of what many Southeast Asian countries have had to endure over the past 50 years. A tourist country in need of it's military has to balance the power by filling the power vacuum left behind by Thaksin. Maybe it will have to reinvent itself seeing as the world economy is struggling, too.